My iTablet predictions
A good number of tech writers are reporting on the basic specifications of this new tablet from Apple, or at least what they either think they are or say they heard from a source. One article I read today talked about how Steve Jobs is saying this is the most important thing he’s done so far. So I thought I’d write up my predictions for the new tablet, or at least ideas that I would love to see implemented into it.
I think we all know this device has to be universal in its approach and appeal to everyone, much like the iPhone. The iPhone is great because with all the apps available for it, the machine can be whatever you need it to be. Apple would be silly not to continue this experience, so it was no surprise that this new device is rumored to run the same OS that the iPhone uses.
It only makes sense that this tablet, built on the iPhone OS, will have strong interaction with the iPhone/iPod Touch. For example, the tablet could play a movie sitting in a stand on your desk while the iPhone is your remote control. This is just one very basic idea, but if you use your imagination you could easily see how the iPhone could become a gamepad that is completely on the touch screen, and play a full-screen game on your tablet.
It is surprising to me that no one has talked about this device being possibly subsidized by wireless carriers. Any truly next-gen device that is important and this connected to the web has to be able to connect from anywhere and not just limited to wifi hotsports. Verizon Wireless has told their employees there will be a big announcement for them tomorrow as well. While this probably partially relates to the iPhone being available on their network, I wouldn’t be surprised if the tablet is also announced as available through them and other carriers as well. This tablet could also use the hybrid GSM (AT&T, Tmobile) and CDMA (Verizon, Sprint) chips reported for the next iPhone. It seems that many rumor reports are suggesting that these devices will have 3G chips, so I doubt I’m wrong here.
This means the rumored $1000 price tag would drop by a few hundred dollars. Even getting it down to $600-700 would bring in many more customers for Apple, who is getting its money anyway from the carriers who are taking a hit on the device to lock people into a contract. Carriers already sell netbooks from HP and Dell in stores, it seems that they could sell the tablet just like both AT&T and Apple stores sell the iPhone as it is. As this isn’t a phone, it may be able to do data only, making it even more accessible to people who might otherwise have netbooks or laptops. Much like the iPhone, within 2-3 years the older versions could be reduced in price to only $200-300. Given that iPhone sales doubled in the past quarter to bring Apple record profits, I think it is clear people are willing to pay that. However, as I’ll mention below, I think including voice would be a good idea.
For the record though, I think the device by itself without being subsidized will not cost $1000. This is simply too inaccessible for most people, and Apple surely wants this to be as big as the iPhone. I think with subsidies from the carriers, a price of $200-300 is more realistic from the start if they want to achieve iPhone-like success.
Still, Jobs says this is important, which makes me think he is trying to revolutionize how we connect to the rest of the world. A front-facing camera is something that is rumored and I think Apple would be silly not to include it, since it would act as a webcam which is already becoming a standard on any type of device bigger than a phone or mp3 player. I think Apple could really be revolutionary with a device that allows for video chat like this. While the device will probably have a speaker and microphone, a bluetooth headset could easily be used to make this able to act just like a cell phone and give you some privacy. If this tablet runs the iPhone OS, there is no reason that the dialer and all that couldn’t be put on the tablet as well. You might even be able to have the iPhone use software to forward the call to your tablet or vice versa. I think including the capabilities of connecting to a wireless voice network would be a good idea for this reason.
As a sidenote, the next iPhone should also have a front facing camera. This is something people have been wanting for years for this very reason. The iPhone could be the mini, portable alternative when your tablet is too big to bring along somewhere.
I say all these predictions because I think this is the ultimate way of our personal communication technology as we go into the future. It will only be a matter of time until cell phones devolve in size and scope into what are currently bluetooth headsets, and we all instead have some type of ‘tablet’ device for everything we need as well as an interface to the headset. I think this could easily happen within 10-20 years (certainly within 40), as we have already shown how the cell phone has gone from a giant-yet-still-portable analog device that looked like a walkie-talkie in the 90s to the current sleek, sophisticated mini-computers capable of rendering 3D games and connecting you to biggest assembled collection of knowledge the world has ever known. One drawback is the tablet may be a little bigger than a cell phone and more of a burden to carry around, but we already carry around laptops and netbooks which are arguably bigger and heavier than what I expect the tablet to be. All you would ever need to carry could be your tablet. Paper, books, etc. would all become obsolete.
Ray Kurzweil recently suggested we would have glasses which overlay information, and while I still think that may be possible, the only way you could input data would be either a mini-keyboard on a strap around your wrist, or verbal instructions (where you are forced to say everything you need out loud, thus risking privacy). Still, I think we will all just have tablet devices as an all-in-one notepad, media device, communicator, book/newspaper/magazine reader, PDA, internet device, and so on. It just makes the most sense to have this all in one flat, universal device that is always accessible for you. If you need to call someone, you dial on your tablet and your bluetooth headset does the rest. A device that is a little bigger than this Dell device shown at CES, which is still at least managable on your hip or in very big pockets, could be the perfect fit between being portable and small enough to bring anywhere, yet large enough to do everything short of serious work that requires a desktop/laptop (such as writing novels).
Moving on, I think this new tablet may make devices like Kindle a bit more obsolete over time. I know e-ink is great because it doesn’t strain your eyes, but if you need to spend hundreds of dollars, you might as well get the device that does everything all in one. The iPhone screen is too small to effectively use the Kindle software or any other ebook reader. I’m sure much time was spent on the exact dimensions to make the tablet large enough that it can easily display pages of books, newspapers, etc. The screen already seems like it will be bigger than the Kindle, so at that point it just becomes really hard to justify spending $250 on a black and white device that only reads books. I think Amazon, along with other ebook reading devices, will need to dramatically lower their prices to continue selling within 2-3 years, maybe even to the $50 point as we start to make everything digital. At that point though, there is no reason the Kindle can’t still turn a profit as it is a very basic device. This is not to say it is cheap, but it certainly doesn’t require the same type of advanced chips and horsepower of an iPhone or Google’s Nexus One phone, and the prices of both the Kindle 2 and Barnes and Nobles’ nook are currently a bit ridiculous when you consider what you are actually getting hardware-wise.
I must admit that I really can’t fathom how data entry will work. This device seems too big to have a keyboard that you could easily tap with thumbs. Holding the device with one hand and typing with the other seems like it will become a bit of a pain in the ass and would be very slow. A great way to alleviate this would be have an iPhone/iPod Touch “keyboard” app that simply has a full-screen keyboard connected to the tablet over bluetooth. This way you can use the touchscreen of the tablet to click around and work as a mouse, and the typing would become a bit faster by using the smaller device just for a keyboard. This also means that the keyboard won’t take up space on the tablet and it could be propped up and work more like a traditional computer monitor or more similar to the many large touch-screen all-in-one computers being produced (like the HP TouchSmart series).
As for what I hope it isn’t: Just an iPhone with apps that are tailored for the bigger screen, that make things like newspapers and games a bit more accessible due to the added size and horsepower that is likely to be under the hood. I know everyone is already in a frenzy over this thing and no one has seen it yet, but I think it would be a big let down if it is just an oversized iPhone.
I guess we’ll see tomorrow.
