The Kovalchuk Situation
The following is a forum post I made on devilsrule.com, a site I frequently visit, regarding Ilya Kovalchuk staying or leaving and the circumstances surrounding that. I apologize in advance, this is going to be very long, but I hope it shows the gravity of the situation the Devils are in with deciding to sign Kovalchuk or not and provides some worthwhile things to consider. I hadn’t expected it to get this long, but I started writing a post and 2 hours later I snapped out of it and realized I wrote a book chapter. It happens a lot. Anyway…
I think the most interesting thing is going to be whether Kovalchuk takes a pay cut to be on a team that can make the playoffs and could contend for the cup, or just goes for all the money. A lot of people talk about how he likes to win, and that if it was about money he could have just taken the offer from Atlanta since it was just about the maximum. If he really was checking out homes in the NJ area recently, that seems at least like an indication that he might seriously be considering staying. This ties in to how some other sources say that he wants to be in a place where he isn’t harassed by the media or fans, and can live a low-key life, something we know Brodeur has mentioned as well.
What he is worth and what he can get are two different things, too. I’m sure he’ll have every chance in the world to go get the maximum from like, Edmonton, but does he really have a shot to win it all with those types of teams? It would be more of the same as in Atlanta.
Every great team, especially the ones centered around a few specific players, have had those players make sacrifices for the team. Neither Crosby or Ovechkin have the league maximum, even if they are pretty close. The best example we have is Brodeur and his salary. He’s getting paid no matter what, especially now that he is branding himself, and we get a great deal at $5.2m a year. If Kovalchuk wants to really compete, he is going to have to take a pay cut regardless of the team. That isn’t to say we are the surefire winners, but if you take a look at the team everyone thinks he will go to, LA has even more cap tied up next year than we do and a lot of UFAs too, and are another team who went in the first round just like us and won only 1 more game in their series. So I don’t see why he couldn’t choose to stay here and get roughly the same amount he will get from LA or somewhere in a similar position.
Reading some comments on Fire & Ice, I noticed TG said he knew lots of colleagues or sources who think that he doesn’t make the people around him better, and that he is unproven. His team has only won 1 playoff game in 9 chances. You would think he could steal at least one of them if he is wanting a contract that is Crosby or Ovechkin-esque. I wonder how that will factor in to the teams who are competitive and already have high-caliber players, where he becomes just one of the core stars instead of leading the team basically by himself.
I thought an odd comment was TG saying that most people around the league would take Crosby and Malkin over Parise and Kovalchuk because being strong down the middle and having good D seems to be what wins. I completely agree that our D and centers are hurting and that this seems to be a winning formula in the NHL right now, and a large Kovalchuk contract will most likely kill our chances to really fill those holes, but on the other hand how many other teams who don’t have Crosby and Malkin would take Parise and Kovalchuk if given the chance? And can we supplement the center and D positions well enough in the coming years around those two even if they aren’t the best center combo in the league like the Pens have? They lose this year too, so it can’t be the ONLY way to win.
The only thing so far I’ve been disappointed to hear about is players being upset with how much ice time and free reign he was given. He did what was asked of him regarding his position, as well as did his job of putting some pucks in the net (and getting a lot of assists too). While I think he was misused and overplayed on the power play, he was deserving of most of his minutes. His production wasn’t as huge and didn’t pull the team up like everyone hoped, but that now seems to be more because of coach vs. players issues anyway, and nonetheless the numbers are still fairly decent, all things considered.
As far as anyone telling Lou to just walk away or not bother, or just sign him no matter what, I just don’t get that. Lou is a professional GM and has won 3 Stanley Cups (as well as taking a crappy expansion team to being Stanley Cup champions within a very short time period). The only way this is going to happen is with the utmost professionalism, where he and Vanderbeek will sit down and discuss all the factors and what they are comfortable doing just as reported by the press. The fact is, while Lou steers the ship, the money comes from Vanderbeek and the hugeness of his salary vs. the possible income he will generate will be big factors to be considered as well. These men haven’t become the best in their respective professions by doing things on a whim or not bothering to research and seek out every possibility.
As for my own opinion, I think there is a very slim salary range that we could offer to Kovalchuk, that might even be slightly insulting to him, but still high enough that he might take it if he just for some reason really wants to play here. If that is the case, I am all for signing him. Everyone always complains that we don’t keep our stars and just keep getting lesser players and ones who “fill roles,” well, Kovalchuk is our chance at a star. If that happens, I think the next year or two are going to be seen as transition years anyway much in the same way that Sutter’s first years were too. I remember them talking about a 3-year plan that he and Lou had for the team regarding adapting style and getting the type of players they wanted. The next 1-2 years may very well be waiting out some big contracts while getting Josefson and Tedenby up to becoming rarely 1st/mostly 2nd or 3rd liners, and getting Kovalchuk adapted into the team while trying to fix our D up and figuring out Marty’s replacement. If Josefson emerges as the center everyone wants him to be and we also re-sign Parise, there is every chance that we can go into the 3rd or 4th years with Brodeur sharing time with our future goaltender, some solid guys on D, a decent 1-2 punch with our top 2 lines, and hopefully some depth as well. It will also help us that Parise is an RFA next year, so we can attempt to take this gamble and use the next 1-2 years to re-tool while still being relatively competitive, though probably not Cup-winning. With the extra contracts coming off in his RFA and UFA years, I see no reason why Kovalchuk and Parise can’t be signed here together long term as our cap-eating contracts end in the next 1-2 years. This is probably the most optomistic goal that ensures the future of the team more, both financially and competitively, in the long run.
If the contract Kovalchuk wants is just too high and would completely cripple our team even in the long term, we have to go after a top D and top centerman while retaining Paul Martin. Truthfully we should try to retain Paul Martin either way, but having Kovalchuk and Parise long term might be worth it to continue to suffer on D for the next year or two. This maybe gives us a better shot to win now, but we miss out on having a real superstar and our future is a little more uncertain I think, and not guaranteed to necessarily be better than if we take the chance on Kovy.
As a quick note regarding the argument that we aren’t a winning team, so Kovalchuk has less of an incentive to play here for that reason: I realize our performance the past 4 years dictates otherwise, but I think with a few quick changes and a new coach that the Devils can easily be competitive and I don’t think there is any doubt that they at least make the playoffs again. Even if it is closer to the 5-7 spots rather than winning the division, as the East dictated this year, once the playoffs start anything can happen. So I think re-signing Kovalchuk could go either way, especially if Kovalchuk is serious about wanting to be on a team who consistently wins and who could definitely manage 1 or 2 cups during his 7-10 year contract (and has the recent track record of doing that in the past 15 years). All the other perks of being with a first class organization and a nice/convenient area to live in help too. For all he or anyone knows, we might get a coach who clicks, gets the team firing on all cylinders like Dave Tippett did for Phoenix, and we do great just as easily as it can go the complete opposite direction.